Steve Buchanan gives his best bets for Tuesday’s MLB slate.
Every MLB team is in action tonight, so you know we have a plethora of bets to sift through. I’ll give you some of my favorite baseball best bets for tonight that you can tail on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Pick: Brewers team total over 4.5 runs
We’ll start off tonight with the Brewers taking on the Dodgers in Milwaukee. They’ll be facing starter Gavin Stone, who has looked quite rough since the All-Star break. Through 19.2 innings in the second half of the season, Stone has a 5.95 ERA with a .420 wOBA, six home runs allowed and a 6.43 FIP. Not great! The home runs have been a major issue for Stone in the second half specifically. Six home runs through 19.2 innings nearly matches the eight he allowed through 96.2 innings during the first half of the season. That’s a major red flag.
I don’t expect much relief to come from the bullpen either, as the Dodgers bullpen has been one of the worst in the league in the second-half. They have a 4.60 ERA with 4.50 FIP and a 1.6 HR/9, which is one of the highest in the league. I think the Brewers come out swinging early in this one and should get that team total over 4.5 runs tonight.
If you like this play, you can also take my Same Game Parlay I have up on DraftKings Sportsbook for tonight.
Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays
The Pick: Astros run line -0.5 through first five innings +105
Yuesi Kikuchi (at least so far) has been a great pickup for the Astros. I was extremely vocal about the package they sent to the Blue Jays and how much they overpaid for him. At least for now, they’ve gotten back a starter that’s tossed 11 innings and allowed four runs on seven hits with 19 strikeouts. He’ll be taking on the Rays for the second time already in an Astros uniform and third time overall. Thus far, Kikuchi has pitched 10 innings allowing five runs on nine hits with 15 strikeouts.
The Rays simply aren’t a strong offense against lefties. This offense isn’t remotely the same one Kikuchi faced back in April, where they found more success against him. Tonight’s expected lineup, which will also feature Junior Caminero (the Rays top prospect and No. 2 overall) has a combined wOBA of .272 with a .129 ISO and a 22% K%. I’m not expecting much offense from them in this spot.
On the other side, the Astros offense is on fire. Over the last five games, they’re averaging a whopping seven runs. They’re in a great spot against Shane Baz, who hasn’t seen much success since returning over a month ago. Baz has made six starts lasting 29.1 innings and has a 4.30 ERA with an xERA of 5.18. It’s hard to go against this offense right now with the way they’re swinging the bats.
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
The Pick: Royals moneyline +105
If you’re reading this article later in the day, I’m going to guess the Royals aren’t plus money anymore. I was quite surprised to see them as underdogs today against a rookie making his MLB debut. Now, to be fair, Zebby Matthews is the No. 6 prospect in the Twins system and has moved through minors quickly after being drafted in 2022. His A and AA numbers look fantastic but he seems as if he’s had some bad luck in AAA, giving him a 5.68 ERA with a 4.14 FIP. This will be his first major league start, so we really don’t know what to expect. Personally, I like to fade these kids making their debut. So when I saw the Royals were getting plus money, I started looking into it more.
On the other side, despite Lugo not pitching as strong so far in the second half, he’s had the Twins number this season. This will be the third time Lugo will face this lineup and currently has 12 innings against them, allowing just one run on eight hits and nine strikeouts. If we get the Lugo we’ve seen against this team twice already, I like the Royals to come away with the victory in this one.
Follow me on Twitter for daily MLB picks and info @SBuchanan24
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests. The contents contained in this articledo not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups.
